The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has presented Russia and China with a significant opportunity. Both Moscow and Beijing see the conflict as a chance to undermine U.S. interests in the Middle East and elsewhere. Both are keen to exploit the war to sap U.S. power, gain intelligence on U.S. military systems, and erode the U.S.-led order. Both see a wide variety of potential options for doing so, diplomatic and military, overt and covert. And so far, both countries are succeeding.

The quagmire endured by Russian forces in Ukraine offers a model for the sorts of damage Moscow and Beijing hope to inflict on the United States. The U.S. government has backed Kyiv since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022 for reasons beyond supporting a smaller democracy against its bigger authoritarian neighbor. The war in Ukraine helps tie down a U.S. adversary, degrades Russian power, and costs the Kremlin tens of billions of dollars every year. Russia’s struggle to defeat a nominally weaker power also undermines perceptions of its military capabilities while forcing Moscow to devote more soldiers, munitions, and equipment just to maintain what has turned into a functional stalemate. Meanwhile, the United States can study the conflict to deepen its understanding of the Russian military’s tactics, techniques, and procedures. The Biden administration also saw support for Ukraine as a way to reaffirm Washington’s position as the leader of a rules-based international order. The widely held view that Russia had undertaken a war of aggression in Ukraine, combined with the fear that an emboldened Moscow would again engage in territorial acquisition in the future, allowed the United States to bring together like-minded powers to help isolate Russia.

In Iran, Russia and China see the possibility of turning the tables on the United States. Both countries believe that a U.S. government enmeshed in endless Middle Eastern wars is one that would make much less trouble for them. Indeed, China’s international position improved remarkably in the 20 years after the September 11 attacks, when the United States was preoccupied with wars in the Middle East. As Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar memorably noted: “[F]or two decades, China had been winning but not fighting [in the Middle East], while the U.S. was fighting without winning.”

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