The third in a series of monthly Democracy Institute/ Sunday Express polls has given President Trump a surprise lead over his Democrat rival of 48 percent to 46 percent, his clearest lead yet.

Crucially, President Trump has a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the swing states Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which would put him back in the White House with an electoral college tally of 309 to Biden’s 229.

Specifically, in Florida Trump has a 47 to 45 point lead, Minnesota (where the black lives matters protests began) a 46/45 lead, and New Hampshire a 46/43 lead.



The polling suggests Mr Trump is emerging as the race leader because of a belief he is best in handling the economy.

With a third of voters putting the economy as the top election issue and 66 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back after coronavirus, voters believe that Trump is better for the economy by 57 percent to 43 percent.

Writing for the Sunday Express, Director of the Democracy Institute Patrick Basham suggested that the Biden campaign may have “reached its high water mark”.

He said: “Although Biden remains in a competitive race with Donald Trump, and may well do so until election day, his support isn’t growing. And, tellingly, almost all of the issues that matter most to voters are trending in President Trump’s favour.

“More Americans are concerned about the economy and keeping their current, or getting a new, job. They don’t especially blame Trump for the lockdown-induced economic contraction, and they think he’ll do a better job of righting the economic ship than Biden.”

But while most polls have a clear lead for Biden following criticism of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the Democracy Institute poll again shows that Trump is winning from “shy voters” who do not want to tell people they are voting for him.