After an unprecedented four years in politics, voters are evenly divided on who should next lead the free world.

Former President Donald Trump is one state closer to a stunning comeback in this week's Fox News Power Rankings; the final forecast before the election.

But Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both have pathways to victory, and among many scenarios, it is plausible that Democrats win by a single electoral vote.

A lot has happened but nothing has changed
Americans feel overwhelmed at the end of this presidential cycle. They have grappled with rising prices, illegal immigration, abortion laws, two global conflicts and the sudden departure of an incumbent from the presidential race.

Meanwhile, Trump faced indictments over Jan. 6 and storing classified documents, crushed more than a dozen rivals after reentering the presidential race, and survived two assassination attempts.

Through it all, the former president has kept an unbreakable bond with his voters. For more than a year, Trump has received support from between 48% to 50% of voters in the Fox News Poll, while support for the Democratic candidate has been more elastic.

Now, as the final week of the campaign begins, this electorate is locked in. Polls show a tight national race and curiously, the battleground states are just as close.

Both candidates rest their case on Trump
This weekend, Harris spoke at a rally with Michelle Obama in Michigan with a sharply negative message about Trump and women’s health.

The tone stood in contrast to previous appearances by the first lady and is a sign that the campaign feels the race is close, or even that they are behind.

On Sunday, the vice president went to Philadelphia. There are more voters here than any other city in battleground Pennsylvania and combined, Black and Hispanic people make up the majority of its population.

Those voters remain a weakness of Harris’ new coalition.



Harris’ visit to a Puerto Rican restaurant the same day, however, proved to be more helpful than the campaign could have expected.

Later that night, Trump made his closing arguments at Madison Square Garden.

The event was visually powerful. Some Republicans on the fence about "MAGA" who saw throngs of supporters in red hats in Manhattan could have been persuaded that the movement is more popular and inclusive than before.

But the program gave Democrats new attack lines about Trump and his allies’ dark rhetoric, and included jokes from an insult comedian about Puerto Rican, Latino, and Jewish people. The Trump campaign distanced itself from the remarks Monday, telling Fox News the joke "does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign."

These moments are not quite the strategic mistakes that some observers believe them to be. Trump has a long record of comments like these, and they help drive his supporters to the polls. But there is a large Puerto Rican community in Pennsylvania, where the margins will matter.

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The rally was a bow to the campaign’s full-throated effort to turn out young males, including low-propensity voters. This could be the bloc that gets Trump over the line on November 5.

But last week, there were rumblings that this could be a reunion with Nikki Haley to play for the 20% of higher-propensity, non-MAGA Republicans who say they will vote for Harris in November. This event was not that.


The former president remains very well-positioned on two of the top three issues.

The economy is by far and consistently the most important issue in deciding voters’ ballots. Voters say Trump will better handle the issue by 7 points. He is even more heavily favored on immigration at 15 points. The strength reverses for abortion, where voters favor Harris by 13 points.

The issues polling looks less lopsided further down the list, though still with a Trump advantage. Harris leads on health care, climate change and election integrity, while Trump is ahead on Israel, crime, and guns.


Fox’s latest survey also asked voters which issue was motivating them to vote. 12% said the economy, but 11% chose candidate character and values, and 10% said protecting democracy, rights, and freedoms would get them to the polls.

In a toss-up race to 270, Arizona becomes Trump’s best battleground opportunity

The presidential race is a toss-up. Neither Harris nor Trump have the 270 electoral votes required to win the race. They need to win the right combination of six toss-up states worth a total 82 electoral votes to bring it home.

Surveys show races within the margin-of-error in all the battleground states, but when looked at together, the polling in Arizona tells a different story.

In eight high-quality polls conducted in this state since August, Trump has been ahead in seven. His edge has been between 1-6 points.

That advantage does not exist for Harris or Trump in any other battleground state.

Immigration continues to be a highly important issue in Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico.

In the latest Wall Street Journal survey, 25% of voters said immigration was the most important issue to their vote, higher than any other battleground. It was a "deal-breaker" issue for 24% of voters. And Arizona voters preferred Trump on the issue by 10 points.

Trump allies do not appear to be a drag. Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is less popular with voters despite their shared policies and traits (her Senate race remains Lean D). But the level of ticket-splitting is high and has endured throughout the campaign.
This is still a highly competitive race. If Trump loses, it will be because of suburban growth and non-MAGA Republican voters, who are a strong faction. There is also an abortion measure on the ballot.

But the statewide polling has been directionally consistent and immigration reigns supreme.

Arizona moves from Toss Up to Lean R.

(Fox News Power Rankings are nonpartisan pre-election predictions. Each ranking is informed by data, reporting, and analysis.)

Both candidates have pathways to victory
Battleground states have been won and lost together in recent elections. Trump won the bulk of them in 2016; Biden flipped them back four years later.

There are signs that the Democratic campaign is pursuing a path-of-least-resistance where they eke out a victory with half of those states.

Harris and Walz’s schedules this week focus on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states account for about 60% of their time, the campaign’s most precious resource. Both nominees are visiting all three.

(In deep blue DC, Harris will highlight Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the last election in a speech on the Ellipsis.)



Democrats have also spent about 60% of their battleground advertising budgets in the same states; over $460 million.

This suggests that the campaign is targeting wins in these states and Nebraska’s 2nd district, plus all the less competitive races Biden won last time.

That would land them on 270 electoral votes, the minimum number required to win.

This is one of many scenarios. But as the Harris campaign struggles to pull ahead, it is a very plausible one.

There are 10 states that will likely remain in party hands but remain competitive in the final stretch.

For Republicans, the first opportunity on a great night would be Virginia, where a Washington Post poll shows Harris up by six points, 49%-43%.