АНАЛІТИКА

04.10.2021 | Посилення європейського стримування та оборони: відповідь - НАТО, а не європейська оборонна автономія
Ентоні Кордесмен, Грейс Хванг - CSIS

The time has come for the U.S. and its NATO allies to take a truly serious look at how they are shaping the future defense of Europe, the Atlantic, and the Mediterranean. In doing so, they must focus on improving deterrence and defense, not funding levels. They must assess the role each country should play in creating a more effective alliance instead of debating in generalities, and they should create meaningful force plans instead of issuing more strategic rhetoric.

The U.S. needs to change it approach to NATO and Europe. The U.S. focus on the Chinese threat, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the lack of full U.S. consultation with its NATO partners, the collapse of the Afghan government and its forces, and the casual way in which the U.S. engaged Australia and the U.K. in a closer alliance by substituting U.S. nuclear submarines for French conventional submarines have all raised a whole new series of European doubts about relying on the U.S. as a strategic partner.

At the same time, Europe needs to both be far more realistic about its strategic dependence on U.S. forces and do far more to improve its own military capabilities. It needs to focus on nation-by-nation force improvements rather than burden sharing and arbitrary spending levels, and it must recognize there is no credible European alternative to NATO and an Atlantic alliance.

Both the U.S. and Europe need to properly assess their defense spending levels in terms of actual military requirements and in comparison to the size of Russia spending and forces, and it must put an end to their present emphasis on burden sharing by arbitrary percentage of GDP and equipment spending. The European nations need to focus on net assessments of their present and future capabilities to deter and defend against Russia, on what member countries can actually do to improve their forces, and on modernization at a time when there is an ongoing revolution in military affairs that will last for at least the next few decades. They also need to plan collectively to deal with the ongoing emergence of China as a far larger and more effective military superpower than Russia and subsequently create a stable balance of deterrence in dealing with both Russia and China.

This analysis addresses all of these issues in a summary form, quantifying the key trends involved to the degree that is possible with unclassified data. It makes it clear that the U.S. must remain the center of the Atlantic alliance and that any rebalancing of its forces to Asia must take this into account. This analysis makes it clear that most European powers have left important gaps in their military efforts and that they have not created effective plans to modernize and strengthen their contributions to the NATO alliance.

It also makes it clear that there is no European alternative to safely deterring Russia and meeting its military threats that can significantly reduce European dependence on the U.S. – and there are no meaningful ways the European Union can substitute for NATO.

Доповідь розміщена за адресою

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210920_Cordesman_Strengthening_Deterrence.pdf?uklBOWeL24wVrxWrV9Wr1edkpKnXx33W.


USERS COMMENTS

Ваше ім'я
Ваша поштова скринька
Заголовок
Ваш відгук
Залишилось сомволів
| | | Додати в вибране
Пошук
Підписка
Центр миру, конверсії та зовнішньої політики України
Інститут євро-атлантичного співробітництва
Центр "Україна - Європейський вибір"
Defense Express
Центр європейських та трансатлантичних студій

Rambler's Top100 Rambler's Top100


Міжнародний фонд відродження Проект здійснено за підтримки
Міжнародного Фонду "Відродження"
Міжнародний фонд відродження Проект здійснено за підтримки
Центру інформації та документації НАТО в Україні
© 2004 - 2024. ЄВРОАТЛАНТИКА.UA
Всі права захищено.

Даний проект фінансується, зокрема, за підтримки Гранту Відділу зв'язків із громадськістю Посольства США в Україні. Точки зору, висновки або рекомендації відображають позиції авторів і не обов'язково збігаються із позицією Державного Департаменту США.
На головну Анонси подій Новини Аналітика Топ новини та коментарі Мережа експертів Про проект