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05.12.2011 | Німеччина є безсумнівною жертвою Європейського Монетарного Союзу
Амброуз Еванс-Прітчард - The Telegraph

Enough is enough. Please stop defaming Germany out there in the blogosphere.


The Germans are not engaged in a mercantilist conspiracy to subjugate and milk southern Europe. They are not conducting “warfare by other means”, or heaven forbid, trying to establish a Fourth Reich.


The German people entered monetary union for honourable motives, believing they were acting as good Europeans. It is excruciating for them to see those Athens banners in Syntagma Square showing Chancellor Angela Merkel wearing the Swastika, or read that sign “Arbeit Macht Frei”.


They gave up the D-Mark reluctantly under French and Italian pressure, as the price for acquiescence in Reunification.


They entered EMU at an overvalued rate after the Reunification bubble, leaving them in semi-slump for half a decade. They slowly clawed back competitiveness the hard way, by squeezing wages and driving up productivity.


It is entirely understandable that they now think Club Med can and should do the same. (They are profoundly wrong, of course, because Germany was able to lower relative wages during a) a global boom, b) against other EMU states that were inflating c) and with benchmark borrowing cost that stayed low even during the dog days. None of these factors apply to Italy or Spain now. But this is hard to explain this to the man or woman on the Berlin tram.)


If EMU now puts Germany in mercantilist ascendancy – an untenable position politically – it is by accident. They make good products (and for that reason they should have a strong currency that rises to reflect the fact). The euro is the cause of all the trouble, not German ambitions or motives. Germany is now hated in Europe more than at any time since World War Two because it allowed itself to roped into this ruinous currency experiment, and for no other reason whatsoever.


Chancellor Merkel gave an emotional defence of German conduct today in the Bundestag. Her country is not trying to dominate anybody, she said. “Politics has destroyed all trust,” she said.


“German and European unity have been and are two sides of the same coin. We will never forget that.”


She is entirely right in one sense to continue ruling out Eurobonds as “unthinkable” under current structures, and a violation of German constitution, but that is not really an answer to the historical challenge that she faces in late 2011.


Germany cannot unwind the clock. It did take the fateful step of joining monetary union, and from that awful error follows a string of strategic imperatives.


As the wise professors warned at the time, EMU would lead ineluctably to full fiscal union because an orphan currency would not endure without an EU Treasury and government to back it up, but it would a fiscal union accountable to nobody, because no European democracy exists, or can exist.


It would lead to debt pooling and shared budgets.


It would lead – fatally – to loss of the Bundestag’s sovereign powers to tax and spend. The core functions of parliament would slip away to EU mandarins.


It would lead to the emasculation of Germany’s exemplary post-War democracy.


It would lead in essence to the abolition of Germany as a nation state, even if the window flowers remained in place.


All else was illusion and wishful thinking.


That is what monetary union always meant and means now, though the trick being played on Europe’s citizens was fudged by dishonest treaties, themselves dishonestly ratified.


It is why so many of us on this side of the Ärmelkanal have fought tooth and nail for twenty years to stop Britain being subsumed into this plaything of unaccountable elites, this Project so profoundly threatening to our self-government and constitutional order.


But this is where Germany now is. It must either immolate itself and dismantle the Bismarckian state for the cause of EMU, or prepare to finance an orderly withdrawal from monetary union (with the Finns, Dutch, and Austrians) so that the South can breathe again and hope to recover.


That is the choice. All else is can-kicking, denial, obfuscation, muddle, and self-delusion. As is now becoming obvious, the failure to resolve the matter one way or the other is becoming a danger to the global financial system. It threatens to uncork a global depression. Germany must at last decide.


It is a horrible choice. My sympathies go to the German people who were never given a vote on this ensnarement and infeudation of their peaceful country, and who were egregiously deceived by their own leaders, and who cannot now begin to understand why they suddenly are target of such furious and venomous global criticism.


The Germans too are victims of this ruinous project, the greatest victims of all. Their elites have led them into a diplomatic and economic Stalingrad.


 



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